R.A. (Romulo) Trindade Tomé Marques Alves MSc

This proposal details a research plan aimed at enriching our current understanding regarding the informational
role of commodity markets in the global economy. As a starting point, we establish the extent to which commodity
futures returns predict stock markets around the world. The time-varying nature of predictability is dissected and
used to shed light on the kind of information that is contained in commodity futures markets. Particular attention is
paid to whether commodity futures serve as barometers of the global economy and to the possibility that the sign and magnitude of predictability are a function of the business cycle. Finally, the link between trade complementarities
and predictability is investigated along with the importance of the network of trade flows in propagating commodity
market shocks around the world.