Modelling the Risks of Climate Change

The polluter pays principle tells us that whoever is responsible for producing pollution is also responsible for paying for the damage caused by the pollution. So anyone whose activities lead to the emission of a tonne of carbon dioxide should be taxed for the extra damage that is caused by the climate change due to that tonne of emissions.

The only way in which the sum of the damage caused by a tonne of carbon dioxide across all regions, all impact sectors and all time periods can be estimated is by the use of an integrated assessment model. I will describe the current version of one leading integrated assessment model, PAGE09, and present the appropriate results from it, which suggest that climate change taxes should be at least $100
per tonne of CO2 in countries like the UK and the Netherlands.

Biography:
Chris Hope is a Reader in Policy Modelling at the Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, and is a renowned expert in public policy and integrated assessment modelling of climate change. He has published extensively in books and academic journals including Nature. Dr. Hope is the creator of PAGE, a leading integrated assessment model which has been used in the Stern review on the Economics of Climate Change and also by the US EPA to obtain estimates of the social cost of carbon.

Dr. Hope is an author and review editor for the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was awarded a half share of the Nobel Peace Prize, 2007. He served as the specialist advisor to the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs Inquiry into aspects of the economics of climate change, and recieved Faculty Lifetime Achievement Award from the European Academy of Business in Society and the Aspen Institute.