Mutual Fund's R-squared as Predictor of Performance
Speaker
Abstract
| We propose that fund performance is predicted by its R-squared, obtained by regressing its return on the Fama-French-Carhart four benchmark portfolios. Lower R-squared, or higher idiosyncratic risk relative to total risk, measures selectivity or active management. We show that lagged R-squared has significant negative predictive coefficient in predicting alpha or Information Ratio. This is consistent with Cremers and Petajisto's (2008) results on the effect of selectivity. Funds ranked into lagged lowest-quintile R-squared and highest-quintile alpha produce significant alpha of 2.8%. Also, both fund RMSE and return volatility predict the following year's performance with significant positive and negative coefficients, respectively. Across funds, R-squared is an increasing function of fund size and a decreasing function of its age, its manager tenure and its past performance, but better performance induces funds to subsequently increase their R-squared. |
| The Erasmus Finance Seminar is jointly sponsored by ERIM and the Tinbergen Institute. |
| Contact information: |
| Viorel Roscovan |
