Prof. dr. R. (Richard) Paap

Full Professor

Department of Econometrics

Erasmus School of Economics (ESE)

Erasmus University Rotterdam

Member ERIM

Field: Marketing

Affiliated since 1999

T: +31 10 4081315

E: paap@ese.eur.nl

Richard Paap is a professor of Econometrics at Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE). He obtained his PhD from the same school in 1997. His research concerns the application of econometric models in marketing and macroeconomics using Bayesian and frequentist approaches. He has publications in several major econometric, economic and marketing journals and he is coauthor of the book Quantitative Models in Marketing Research. He is currently Academic Director of the Master Econometrics.

Work in Progress (2)

J.M.A. Viaene, I. Mikolajun, R. Paap & O. Zelenko (2016). Trade Policy Options for Ukraine: East or West. : Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 16-057/VI
S. van den Hauwe, R. Paap & D.J.C. van Dijk (2011). Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions. (Preprints). Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 11-093/4

Publications (71)

Articles (62)

W. Wang, X. Zhang & R. Paap (2019). To pool or not to pool: What is a good strategy for parameter estimation and forecasting in panel regressions? Journal of Applied Econometrics, 34 (5), 724-745. doi: 10.1002/jae.2696
D. Nibbering, R. Paap & M. van der Wel (2018). What do professional forecasters actually predict? International Journal of Forecasting, 34 (2), 288-311. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.12.004
P.H.B.F. Franses, R. Legerstee & R. Paap (2017). Estimating loss functions of experts. Applied Economics, 49 (4), 386-396. doi: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1197373
K. Bel, D. Fok & R. Paap (2017). Parameter Estimation in Multivariate Logit Models with Many Binary Choices (forthcoming). Econometric Reviews, 37 (5), 534-550. doi: 10.1080/07474938.2015.1093780
K. Bel & R. Paap (2016). Modeling the Impact of Forecast-based Regime Switches on US Inflation. International Journal of Forecasting, 32 (4), 1306-1316. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.06.002
C.J.S. da Lourenço, E. Gijsbrechts & R. Paap (2015). The Impact of Category Prices on Store Price Image Formation: An Empirical Analysis. Journal of Marketing Research, 52 (2), 200-216. doi: 10.1509/jmr.11.0536
D. Fok, R. Paap & P.H.B.F. Franses (2014). Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Effort in Brand Choice Modeling. Econometrics, 2 (1), 20-44. doi: 10.3390/econometrics2010020
C. Cakmakli, R. Paap & D.J.C. van Dijk (2013). Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37, 2195-2216. doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2013.06.004
S. van den Hauwe, R. Paap & D.J.C. van Dijk (2013). Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions. Journal of Macroeconomics, 37, 19-40. doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.05.001
J.J.J. Groen, R. Paap & F. Ravazzolo (2013). Real-time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 31 (1), 29-44. doi: 10.1080/07350015.2012.727718
R. Paap & P.H.B.F. Franses (2013). Common Large Innovations Across Nonlinear Time Series. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 17 (3), 251-263. doi: 10.1515/snde-2012-0047
D. Fok, R. Paap & A. van Dijk (2012). A Rank-Ordered Logit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity in Ranking Capabilities. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 27 (5), 831-846. doi: 10.1002/jae.1223
J.F. Geweke, G. Koop & R. Paap (2012). Editorial Introduction for the Annals Issue of the Journal of Econometrics on Bayesian Models, Methods and Applications. Journal of Econometrics, 171 (2), 99-100. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.06.002
N. Basturk, R. Paap & D.J.C. van Dijk (2012). Structural differences in economic growth: An endogenous clustering approach. Applied Economics, 44 (1), 119-134. doi: 10.1080/00036846.2010.500274
D. Fok, R. Paap & P.H.B.F. Franses (2012). Modeling Dynamic Effects of Promotion on Interpurchase Times. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 56 (11), 3055-3069. doi: 10.1016/j.csda.2012.03.022
R. Paap & C. Horvath (2012). The effect of recessions on gambling expenditures. Journal of Gambling Studies, 28 (4), 703-717. doi: 10.1007/s10899-011-9282-9
J. Fidrmuc, R. Paap, P.G.J. Roosenboom & T. Teunissen (2012). One size does not fit all: Selling firms to private equity versus strategic acquirers. Journal of Corporate Finance, 18 (4), 828-848. doi: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2012.06.006
A. van Dijk, P.H.B.F. Franses, R. Paap & D.J.C. van Dijk (2011). Modeling Regional House Prices. Applied Economics, 43 (17), 2097-2110. doi: 10.1080/00036840903085089
P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (2011). Random-coefficient Periodic Autoregressions. Statistica Neerlandica, 65 (1), 101-115. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9574.2010.00477.x
C. Horvath, A. Guenther & R. Paap (2010). Seasonal patterns in slot-machine gambling in Germany. International Gambling Studies, 10 (3), 255-268. doi: 10.1080/14459795.2010.528784
J.E.M. van Nierop, B. Bronnenberg, R. Paap, P.H.B.F. Franses & M. Wedel (2010). Retrieving Unobserved Consideration Sets from Household Panel Data. Journal of Marketing Research, 47 (1), 63-74. doi: 10.1509/jmkr.47.1.63
P. Chintagunta, P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (2009). Introduction to the Special Issue on New Econometric Models in Marketing. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24 (3), 375-376. doi: 10.1002/jae.1055
P.M.C. de Boer & R. Paap (2009). Testing non-nested demand relations: linear expenditure system versus indirect addilog. Statistica Neerlandica, 63 (3), 368-384. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9574.2009.00429.x
D. Fok & R. Paap (2009). Modeling category-level purchase timing with brand-level marketing variables. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24 (3), 469-489. doi: 10.1002/jae.1059
R. Paap, R. Segers & D.J.C. van Dijk (2009). Do leading indicators lead peaks more than troughs? Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 27 (4), 528-543. doi: 10.1198/jbes.2009.07061
B. van Dijk & R. Paap (2008). Explaining individual response using aggregated data. Journal of Econometrics, 146 (1), 1-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.05.008
P.H.B.F. Franses, M.J. van der Leij & R. Paap (2008). A Simple Test for GARCH Against a Stochastic Volatility Model. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 6 (3), 291-306. doi: 10.1093/jjfinec/nbn008
J. Brouwer, R. Paap & J.M.A. Viaene (2008). The trade and FDI effects of EMU enlargement. Journal of International Money and Finance, 27 (2), 188-208. doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2007.12.005
J.F. Geweke, P.J.F. Groenen, R. Paap & H.K. van Dijk (2007). Computational techniques for applied econometric analysis of macroeconomic and financial processes. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 51 (7), 3506-3507. doi: 10.1016/j.csda.2006.11.015
D. Fok, P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (2007). Seasonality and non-linear price effects in scanner-data based market-response models. Journal of Econometrics, 138 (1), 231-251. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2006.05.021
F.R. Kleibergen & R. Paap (2006). Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition. Journal of Econometrics, 133 (1), 97-126. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.02.011
B. Donkers, R. Paap, J.J. Jonker & P.H.B.F. Franses (2006). Deriving Target Selection Rules from Endogenously Selected Samples. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 21 (5), 549-562. doi: 10.1002/jae.858 [go to publisher's site]
G.E. Bijwaard, P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (2006). Modeling purchases as repeated events. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 24 (4), 487-502. doi: 10.1198/073500106000000242
D. Fok, C. Horvath, R. Paap & P.H.B.F. Franses (2006). A hierarchical Bayes error correction model to explain dynamic effects of price changes. Journal of Marketing Research, 43 (3), 443-461. doi: 10.1509/jmkr.43.3.443
R. Paap, P.H.B.F. Franses & D.J.C. van Dijk (2005). Does Africa grow slower than Asia, Latin America and the Middle East? Evidence from a new data-based classification method. Journal of Development Economics, 77 (2), 553-570. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2004.05.001
R. Paap, E. van Nierop, H.J. van Heerde, M. Wedel, P.H.B.F. Franses & K.J. Alsem (2005). Consideration sets, intentions and the inclusion of "don't know" in a two-stage model for voter choice. International Journal of Forecasting, 21 (1), 53-71. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2004.02.004
P.H.B.F. Franses, R. Paap & B.L.K. Vroomen (2004). Forecasting unemployment using an autoregression with censored latent effects parameters. International Journal of Forecasting, 20 (2), 255-271. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.09.004
R. Paap & H.K. van Dijk (2003). Bayes estimates of Markov trends in possibly cointegrated series: an application to U.S. consumption and income. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 21 (4), 547-563. doi: 10.1198/073500103288619296
J. Kippers, E. Nierop, R. Paap & P.H.B.F. Franses (2003). An empirical study of cash payments. Statistica Neerlandica, 57 (4), 484-508. doi: 10.1111/1467-9574.00241
D.J.C. van Dijk, P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (2002). A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment. Journal of Econometrics, 110 (2), 135-165. doi: 10.1016/S0304-4076(02)00090-8
F.R. Kleibergen & R. Paap (2002). Priors, posteriors and bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration. Journal of Econometrics, 111 (2), 223-249. doi: 10.1016/S0304-4076(02)00105-7
P.H.B.F. Franses, M.J. van der Leij & R. Paap (2002). Modelling and forecasting level shifts in absolute returns. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 17 (5), 606-616. doi: 10.1002/jae.690
R. Paap (2002). What are the advantages of MCMC based inference in latent variable models? Statistica Neerlandica, 56 (1), 2-22. doi: 10.1111/1467-9574.00060
J. Kippers, P.H.B.F. Franses, J.E.M. van Nierop & R. Paap (2002). Hoe betalen we eigenlijk? Economisch-Statistische Berichten, 87, 847-850.
P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (2002). Censored latent effects autoregression, with an application to us unemployment. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 17, 347-366. doi: 10.1002/jae.627
R. Paap & P.H.B.F. Franses (2000). A dynamic multinomial probit model for brand choice with different long-run and short-run effects of marketing-mix variables. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 15 (6), 717-744.
P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (2000). Modelling day-of-the- week seasonality in the S&P 500 index. Applied Financial Economics, 10, 483-488.
P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (2000). Modeling day-of-the=week seasonality in the S&P 500 index. Applied Financial Economics, 10, 483-488.
R. Paap & H.K. van Dijk (1999). Posterior evidence on the Permanent Income Hypothesis. Bullettin EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis, 58, 48-52.
P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (1999). Does seasonal adjustment influence the dating if business cycle turning points? Journal of Macroeconomics, 21, 79-92.
P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (1999). On trends and constants in periodic autoregressions. Econometric Reviews, 18, 271-286.
P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (1999). Does seasonality influence the dating of business cycle turning points? Journal of Macroeconomics, 21, 79-92.
R. Paap & H.K. van Dijk (1998). Distribution and mobility of wealth of nations. European Economic Review, 42, 1269-1293.
P.H.B.F. Franses, H. Hoek & R. Paap (1997). Bayesian analysis of seasonal unit roots and seasonal mean shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 78, 359-380.
R. Paap, P.H.B.F. Franses & H. Hoek (1997). Mean shifts, unit roots and forecasting seasonal time series. International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 355-378.
P.H.B.F. Franses, H. Hoek & R. Paap (1997). Mean shifts, unit roots and forecasting seasonal time series. International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 355-366.
P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (1996). Periodic integration: further results on model selection and forecasting. Statistische Hefte, 37, 33-52. doi: 10.1007/BF02926158
P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (1995). Moving average filters and periodic integration. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 39, 245-249.
P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (1995). Seasonality and stochastic trends in German consumption and income. Empirical Economics (Heidelberg), 20, 109-132. doi: 10.1007/BF01235160
P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (1995). Seasonality and stochastic trends in German consumption and income. Empirical Economics (Heidelberg), 20, 109-132. doi: 10.1007/BF01235160
P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (1994). Model selection in periodic autoregressions. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 56, 421-439.
P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (1994). Model selection in periodic autoregressions. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 56, 421-439.

Books (2)

P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (2004). Periodic time series models (Advanced texts in econometrics). Oxford: Oxford University Press
P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (2001). Quantitative models in marketing research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

Book Contributions (5)

F. Ravazzolo, R. Paap, D.J.C. van Dijk & P.H.B.F. Franses (2008). Bayesian model averaging in the presence of structural breaks. In M. Wohar & D.E. Rapach (Eds.), Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty (Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, 3) (pp. 561-594). Bingley: Emerald Group Publishing
R. Paap & H.K. van Dijk (2008). Distribution and Mobility of Wealth of Nations. In D. Chotikapanich (Ed.), Modeling Income Distributions and Lorenz Curves (pp. 71-94). New York: Springer
D. Fok, P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (2006). Performance of seasonal adjustment procedures: simulation and empirical results. In T.C. Mills & K. Patterson (Eds.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 1, Econometric Theory (pp. 1035-1055). Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan
P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (2002). Forecasting with periodic autoregressive time-series models. In M.P. Clements & D.F. Hendry (Eds.), A companion to economic forecasting (pp. 432-452). Oxford: Blackwell Publishers Ltd
D. Fok, P.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap (2002). Econometric analysis of the market share attraction model. In P.H.B.F. Franses & A.L. Montgomery (Eds.), Advances in econometrics: Econometric models in marketing, chapter 10 (Advances in Econometrics, 16) (pp. 223-256). Amsterdam: JAI Press

Doctoral Thesis

R. Paap (1997, november 27). Markov trends in macroeconomic time series. Erasmus University Rotterdam (168 pag.) Prom./coprom.: H.K. van Dijk.

Inaugural Speech

R. Paap (2011). Laten we het elkaar nog moeilijker maken. Oratie (2011, januari 21). Rotterdam: Erasmus Universiteit

PhD Tracks (8)

Segmentation and Dimension Reduction: Exploratory and Model-Based Approaches

Role: Member Doctoral Committee
PhD Candidate: Joost van Rosmalen
Time frame: 2004 - 2009

Advanced Econometric Marketing Models

Role: Co-promotor
PhD Candidate: Dennis Fok
Time frame: 1999 - 2003

Measuring and Forecasting Financial Market Volatility using High-Frequency Data

Role: Member Doctoral Committee
PhD Candidate: Karim Bannouh
Time frame: 2006 - 2013

Marketing Modeling for New Products

Role: Member Doctoral Committee, Co-promotor
PhD Candidate: Carlos Hernandez Mireles
Time frame: 2006 - 2010

The Entrepreneurial Process: An International Analysis of Entry and Exit

Role: Member Doctoral Committee
PhD Candidate: Peter van der Zwan
Time frame: 2007 - 2011

Linear Mixed Models in Statistical Genetics

Role: Member Doctoral Committee
PhD Candidate: Ronald de Vlaming
Time frame: 2013 - 2017

Marketing Analytics for High-Dimensional Assortments

Role: Member Doctoral Committee
PhD Candidate: Bruno Jacobs
Time frame: 2012 - 2017

Competition in the Retail Market of Consumer Packaged Goods

Role: Member Doctoral Committee
PhD Candidate: Wei Li
Time frame: 2009 -

Recognitions (2)

Editorial positions (2)

Statistica Neerlandica

Associate Editor
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis

Associate Editor

Events (3)

2011

April

Workshop Reliability and Rankings

Research Seminar

As: Speaker

2011

January

Let's Make Things More Difficult

Inaugural Address

As: Speaker

2009

May

Workshop on Advanced Bayesian Inference

Research Workshop

As: Coordinator

Awards (2)

ERIM Book Award (2003)
ERIM Award for 'Outstanding Performance by a Young Researcher' (2002)

Address

Visiting address

Office: ET-33
Burgemeester Oudlaan 50
3062 PA Rotterdam

Postal address

Postbus 1738
3000 DR Rotterdam
Netherlands

J.M.A. Viaene, I. Mikolajun, R. Paap & O. Zelenko (2016). Trade Policy Options for Ukraine: East or West. : Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 16-057/VI

S. van den Hauwe, R. Paap & D.J.C. van Dijk (2011). Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions. (Preprints). Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 11-093/4