Prof. dr. A. (Aurélien) Baillon

Erasmus School of Economics (ESE)
Erasmus University Rotterdam
Member ERIM
Field: Marketing
Affiliated since 2008

Aurelien Baillon is Professor of Economics of Uncertainty, in the Behavioral Economics group.  His work focuses on individual decision making under risk and ambiguity. Through both empirical and theoretical studies, his research addresses issues in subjective probability elicitation, models of attitude towards risk and ambiguity, and aggregation of expert opinions (Personal website).


  • Academic (31)
    • Baillon, A., Halevy, Y., & Li, C. (2022). Experimental elicitation of ambiguity attitude using the random incentive system. Experimental Economics, 25(3), 1002-1023.

    • Baillon, A., Halevy, Y., & Li, C. (2022). Randomize at Your Own Risk: On the Observability of Ambiguity Aversion. Econometrica, 90(3), 1085-1107.

    • Baillon, A., Capuno, J., O'Donnell, O., Tan, C. A., & van Wilgenburg, K. (2022). Persistent effects of temporary incentives: Evidence from a nationwide health insurance experiment. Journal of Health Economics, 81, [102580].

    • Van Der Zee, S., Poppe, R., Havrileck, A., & Baillon, A. (2021). A Personal Model of Trumpery: Linguistic Deception Detection in a Real-World High-Stakes Setting. Psychological Science, 33(1), 3-17.,

    • Baillon, A., Bleichrodt, H., Li, C., & Wakker, P. P. (2021). Belief hedges: Measuring ambiguity for all events and all models. Journal of Economic Theory, 198, [105353].

    • Baillon, A., & Xu, Y. (2021). Simple bets to elicit private signals. Theoretical Economics, 16(3), 777-797.

    • Johnson, C., Baillon, A., Bleichrodt, H., Li, Z., van Dolder, D., & Wakker, P. P. (2021). Prince: An improved method for measuring incentivized preferences. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 62(1), 1-28.

    • Baillon, A., & L’Haridon, O. (2020). Discrete Arrow–Pratt indexes for risk and uncertainty. Economic Theory.

    • Baillon, A., Bleichrodt, H., & Spinu, V. (2020). Searching for the reference point. Management Science, 66(1), 93-112.

    • Baillon, A., de Bruin, J., Emirmahmutoglu, A., van de Veer, E., & van Dijk, B. (2019). Informing, simulating experience, or both: A field experiment on phishing risks. PLoS One (online).

    • Baillon, A., Bleichrodt, H., Emirmahmutoglu, A., & Jaspersen, J. (2019). When Risk Perception Gets in the Way: Probability Weighting and Underprevention. Operations Research, Accepted.

    • Baillon, A., & Placido, L. (2019). Testing constant absolute and relative ambiguity aversion. Journal of Economic Theory, 181, 309-332.

    • Baillon, A., Huang, Z., Selim, A., & Wakker, P. (2018). Measuring Ambiguity Attitudes for All (Natural) Events. Econometrica, 86(5), 1839-1858.

    • Baillon, A., & Emirmahmutoglu, A. (2018). Zooming in on ambiguity attitudes. International Economic Review, 59(4).

    • Baillon, A., Schlesinger, H., & van de Kuilen, G. (2017). Measuring higher order ambiguity preferences. Experimental Economics, 21(2), 233-256.

    • Baillon, A., Bleichrodt, H., Keskin, U., l'Haridon, O., & Li, C. (2017). The effect of learning on ambiguity attitudes. Management Science, 64(5), 2181-2198.

    • Baillon, A. (2017). Prudence with respect to ambiguity. The Economic Journal, 127(604), 1731-1755.

    • Baillon, A. (2017). Bayesian markets to elicit private information. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Ame, 114(30), 7958-7962.

    • Baillon, A., Liu, N., & van Dolder, D. (2017). Comparing Uncertainty Aversion towards Different Sources. Theory and Decision, 83(1), 1-18.

    • Bleichrodt, H., Baillon, A., Huang, Z., & Potter van Loon, R. (2017). Measuring ambiguity attitude: (extended) multiplier preferences for the American and the Dutch population. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 54(3), 269-281.

    • Baillon, A., Bleichrodt, H., Liu, N., & Wakker, P. (2016). Group Decision Rules and Group Rationality under Risk. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 52(2), 99-116.

    • Baillon, A., Koellinger, PD., & Treffers, T. (2016). Sadder but wiser: The effects of emotional states on ambiguity attitudes. Journal of Economic Psychology, 53(April), 67-82.

    • Baillon, A., & Bleichrodt, H. (2015). Testing ambiguity models through the measurement of probabilities for gains and losses. American Economic Journal. Microeconomics, 7(2), 77-100.

    • Baillon, A., Bleichrodt, H., & Cillo, A. (2015). A Tailor-Made Test of Intransitive Choice. Operations Research, 63(1), 198-211.

    • Baillon, A., Selim, A., & van Dolder, D. (2013). On the social nature of eyes: The effect of social cues in interaction and individual choice tasks. Evolution and Human Behavior, 34(2), 146-154.

    • Baillon, A., Driesen, B., & Wakker, P. (2012). Relative Concave Utility for Risk and Ambiguity. Games and Economic Behavior, 75(2), 481-489.

    • Baillon, A., Cabantous, L., & Wakker, P. (2012). Aggregating Imprecise or Conflicting Beliefs: An Experimental Investigation Using Modern Ambiguity Theories. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 44(2), 115-147.

    • Baillon, A., l'Haridon, O., & Placido, L. (2011). Ambiguity Models and the Machina Paradoxes. The American Economic Review, 101(4), 1547-1560.

    • Abdellaoui, M., Baillon, A., Placido, L., & Wakker, P. (2011). The Rich Domain of Uncertainty: Source Functions and Their Experimental Implementation. The American Economic Review, 101(2), 695-723.

    • Baillon, A. (2008). Eliciting Subjective Probabilities Through Exchangeable Events: An Advantage and a Limitation. Decision Analysis, 5(2), 76-87.

    • Baillon, A., Kraft, A., O’Donnell, O., & van Wilgenburg, K. (2022). A behavioral decomposition of willingness to pay for health insurance. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 64(1), 43-87.

  • Popular (1)
    • Baillon, A. (2015). Subjective Truths. Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM). Inaugural serie

  • Academic (1)
    • Baillon, A., Bleichrodt, H., Liu, N., & Wakker, P. (2013). Group decision rules and group rationality under risk.

  • Role: Member Doctoral Committee
  • PhD Candidate: Zhihua Li
  • Time frame: 2010 - 2014
  • Role: Promotor
  • PhD Candidate: Ning Liu
  • Time frame: 2011 - 2017
  • Role: Member Doctoral Committee
  • PhD Candidate: Nick Benschop
  • Time frame: 2012 - 2016
Inaugural Address
As: Speaker


Visiting address

Office: N1-11
Burgemeester Oudlaan 50
3062 PA Rotterdam

Postal address

Postbus 1738
3000 DR Rotterdam